The world may get a glimpse of what is really going on in Burma when the United Nations' special envoy, the Malaysian diplomat Razali Ismail, visits Rangoon this Monday.
In trying to keep a political dialogue on track between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, head of the National League for Democracy, and military authorities, he has to convince the country's top generals that a major breakthrough is needed to keep the process alive. Progress might open the door for the expanded humanitarian and other international assistance needed by Burma.
Razali's visit was scheduled for March but was deferred after the arrest of four relatives of Ne Win, the 92-year-old former dictator who retired in 1988. The government says they will be put on trial on charges of high treason, a capital offense, for attempting a coup.
The coup charges have provided General Than Shwe, a leading figure in the ruling junta, with a convenient pretext to consolidate his grip on power.
The arrests and the delay in Razali's trip fueled speculation on a split in the government's top ranks, between "reformers" and "hard-liners," that could sink any chances of the confidence-building talks with the league moving to serious discussions about a democratic transition. Razali is expected to push for the release of more than 1,000 political prisoners, including hundreds of detained pro-democracy activists and at least 17 members of Parliament elected in 1990. The UN human rights expert on Burma, Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, reporting to the UN Commission on Human Rights in Geneva, has stressed that the release of all political prisoners is important "not only as an end in itself but also because it is regarded by the leadership of the league as a prerequisite for moving to the next phase of talks."
Pinheiro gave Rangoon credit for freeing more than 200 political detainees since the beginning of last year, while complaining that the process was going much too slowly. He also praised Burma for allowing some league offices to reopen.
But just days before the UN commission took up Burma, the government announced a harsh seven-year prison sentence for a retired academic, Salai Tun Than. He was arrested last November for holding a peaceful protest in front of Rangoon City Hall calling for democracy.
It appears that the ruling generals are as determined as ever to crush any open dissent, while at the same time carrying on a process of dialogue internally and pursuing engagement externally with the international community. Such a two-track approach is not sustainable.
Another key test of the government's willingness to change is its response to the International Labor Organization's demands for an end to forced labor. It has failed to take the necessary steps to halt the army's use of forced labor. The practice continues especially in the building of infastructure projects and in certain ethnic minority areas.
If the Razali visit is to have any chance of success, the pressure on Burma must be maintained, and not only by Western governments. Japan and the Association of South East Asian Nations should also be actively involved in persuading the generals to end the current impasse.
Mike Jendrzecjzyk is Washington D.C. Director for Asia at Human Rights Watch.
