With Croatia given a likely date for EU membership in the European Commission's 5 November progress report, it was not surprising that a Turkish journalist would ask Olli Rehn, the European enlargement commissioner, to give a date to Turkey, which became a candidate for EU membership the same year as Croatia. Rehn responded that the demand for a date had become an "excuse" for inaction by Turkey and that concrete steps from Turkey were needed to meet the EU's criteria for membership.
Rehn was right to assert that for Turkey, the time for excuses is over and that it needs to take real steps to meet the human-rights requirements for EU membership. But many member states should follow his example in addressing forthrightly how Turkey can actually qualify for membership. The publication of the progress report is the one day in the year when Turkey's human-rights progress is seriously scrutinised and the question of its possible EU membership is openly discussed. The rest of the year it gets the silent treatment from many EU member states that oppose its candidacy and that apparently would just as soon not see the issue raised. As a result, the EU has undercut its influence over Turkey and helped empower those in the country who oppose reform.
As the Commission's report makes clear, Turkey has been in a political crisis for the past two years, with repeated interference by hostile military and courts in the programme of the democratically elected government formed by the Justice and Development party (AKP). The governing party narrowly escaped being closed down by Turkey's Constitutional Court in July, when it deemed the government's effort to lift the ban on headscarves for women in universities evidence of "anti-secular activities". The Commission's report raises serious questions about the independence of Turkey's judiciary and the presence of the military in political life.
While acknowledging the disabling political climate for the Turkish government in 2008, the Commission's report also correctly concludes that the AKP could have done and needs to do much more to further Turkey's progress on human rights. With political will, the government could tackle continuing restrictions on freedom of expression and lack of protection for minorities. The government failed to honour its pledge to redraft the 1982 constitution in its entirety. There are worrying signs of a rise in the incidence of torture and ill-treatment by the police and in prison, albeit on a lesser scale than the 1990s, and the perpetrators continue to enjoy official protection.
Fading interest, fading influence
In the past, EU member states opposed to Turkish membership, such as France and Germany, pointed to Turkey's poor record on human rights to discredit its candidacy. But increasingly those states and others opposed to Turkey's membership prefer to ignore the fact that Turkey is even a candidate. The French presidency of the EU may oversee the opening of one or two minor chapters in the accession negotiations but it is above all interested in Turkey not becoming an issue on its watch.
The Turkish government bears much of the blame for the stalled reforms and deterioration on human rights over the past year. But the EU shares responsibility. By reneging on the commitment to judge Turkey against objective criteria established in Copenhagen in 2002, leading EU states have undercut the EU's leverage in Turkey and played into the hands of those in Turkey who oppose reform. The EU's declining influence was visible to anyone who visited a newsstand in Istanbul the day after the publication of the regular report, where it was difficult to find any prominent news coverage. The annual publication of these reports once warranted front-page news. With the EU perceived as insincere, the Turkish media show a waning interest in what the Commission has to say.
The stakes could not be higher. Turkey urgently needs the critical engagement of the EU to help get the reform process back on track. For that to happen, the EU must speak with one voice and make clear that Turkey's path to Europe will be judged on the criteria assessed in the Commission's report.
Emma Sinclair-Webb is a researcher for Human Rights Watch.
