Nagorno-Karabakh Depopulated: What Now? Daily Brief October 5, 2023

The mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh in recent days has been horrifying. More than 100,000 people have fled. That’s almost the entire population of the area.

It followed Azerbaijan’s latest military attacks to regain full control over Nagorno-Karabakh – a region of Azerbaijan whose ethnic Armenian majority had, together with forces from the Republic of Armenia, fought a war to secede from Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. With last month’s attack, the enclave’s de facto authorities agreed to disband.

Now that ethnic Armenians have fled Nagorno-Karabakh en masse, the question is: what happens next? Azerbaijan wants to reintegrate the now mostly empty region and its no-longer-resident residents, but what would that look like exactly?

Azerbaijani authorities have repeatedly said everyone’s rights will be protected in Nagorno-Karabakh, yet such assertions are difficult to accept at face value. Indeed, the lack of confidence in Azeri authorities is a large part of why so many have fled.

And after decades of conflict and alleged war crimes, not to mention months of severe hardships caused by an Azeri blockade of the region, are ethnic Armenians likely to trust Azeri authorities enough to return? The Azerbaijani government’s appalling human rights record generally also doesn’t help.

Yet, some fleeing ethnic Armenians our researchers interviewed at the border said they would consider returning to Nagorno-Karabakh. For most, that meant simply to collect their belongings – if they could do so under international protection.

But one man from Khankendi (Stepanakert) said he would consider returning with his family for the longer term, “if Azerbaijan allows Armenians to live there as a community – with Armenian schools, Armenian churches, and administration staff recruited from members of the community.”

That’s good advice, both for Azerbaijan and for its international partners.

Ethnic Armenians who fled Nagorno-Karabakh have the right to return. Azerbaijan should respect that right, and the EU, US, and other concerned governments should be encouraging Azerbaijan to do so. They should emphasize the specific steps Azerbaijan needs to take to facilitate returns, whether short-term visits or for longer.

Those who choose not to return permanently should be allowed to collect remaining belongings, deal with their real estate, visit graves, and the like. They should also be compensated for their property.

For those who do return, Azerbaijan should heed the words of that man from Khankendi (Stepanakert) and ensure access to education in the Armenian language and protections for civil, political, religious, and cultural rights. Having Armenians in the police and local administration could also help build confidence.

Given the decades of conflict and mistrust, however, none of this seems likely to happen without an international monitoring mission to the region. Germany’s foreign ministry has publicly signaled a commitment “along with its international partners” to just such a mission, adding that the people of the region “need to be able to trust that they are not alone.”

That’s the right direction. Now, they have to make it happen.