Somaliland’s Election Controversy

In 2003 and 2005 Somaliland took enormous strides towards institutionalizing democratic governance by holding peaceful multiparty presidential and parliamentary elections. Those elections were not without their flaws, but considering the low institutional and financial capacity of the government and the dismal standards set by Somaliland’s regional neighbors, both polls were remarkable accomplishments.[170] But the positive trends they embodied are now in real jeopardy because of the Riyale administration’s repeated delay of elections that should have consolidated the gains of those first multiparty polls.

Those delays have grown in part out of irresponsible actions on the part of the opposition as well as the administration. But the Riyale government has stood aside to watch preparations for the elections unravel, doing nothing to try and put them back on track, and exploited the confusion to remain in power far beyond its mandate. The president has now managed to extend his own term of office by 18 months using means whose legality is questionable at best. The problem is not just an issue of delay—the events of recent months give rise to serious doubts as to whether the president wishes the elections to take place at all.

Somaliland’s emerging democratic system may well manage to navigate the political crisis all of this has brought about. But the problems surrounding the elections provide a clear illustration of how dangerous the government’s broader tendency to behave illegally and unconstitutionally is to the territory’s hard-won gains in the areas of governance and human rights.

Delaying the Presidential Polls

Somaliland’s next presidential polls were originally scheduled for April 2008. Somaliland’s National Electoral Commission (NEC) delayed the elections until August 2008 after securing the agreement of all three political parties to allow for more time to prepare for the polls. The NEC could not affect any further delays on its own because the constitution requires that elections take place at least one month before the end of the president’s five-year term, which expired in May 2008. Since then the president has twice benefitted from the unelected Guurti’s (House of Elders) decision to push that date back further still, a decision most believe was a result of the president’s encouragement and of the fact he had already extended the mandate of the Guurti.

According to the constitution, the only circumstance under which the president’s term of office can be extended is if it is not possible to hold an election “because of security considerations.” In such a scenario the Guurti can extend the president’s term of office, “taking into consideration the period in which the problems can be overcome and the election can be held.”[171] But theGuurti has treated this constitutional provision as though it accords it the right to extend the elections for any reason and for whatever length of time it sees fit. In April 2008 the Guurti passed a resolution extending the president’s term of office by one year, to May 2009, after the three political parties again agreed between themselves to postpone the polls to December 2008.

Neither the government nor the Guurti made any real effort to argue that security concerns prevented the elections from being held or to justify the length of the delay in security terms—the strict requirements explicitly imposed by the constitution.[172] Rather the delay was explained as necessary because too little had been done to organize voter registration and the elections themselves. Many Somaliland lawyers and activists believe that this means there was no constitutional basis for the Guurti’s extension of Riyale’s term.[173] Suleiman Mahmoud Adan, the chairman of the Guurti, admitted as much to Human Rights Watch:

At the last extension these [security-related] conditions did not exist, but it was a failure on the part of the entire system—we wrangled too much over the appointment of members of the [electoral] commission, so it was decided collectively by parties and the commission and the president to extend up to April 15.[174]

After an initial flurry of protest by some opposition figures, in June 2008 the three recognized parties agreed to accept the Guurti’s action and hold the elections in March 2009.[175] Although probably unconstitutional, the move was not without precedent—in 2001 the Guurti extended then President Egal’s term of office by one year because the NEC required more time to organize the local district elections that were to precede presidential polls that were ultimately held in 2003.[176]

This extension gave the government and the Riyale administration and the NEC 10 extra months to prepare to hold elections. But the NEC proved itself incapable of making good use of that broad window, partly because the Riyale government as well as both opposition parties failed to put qualified appointees onto the Commission. The Riyale administration did little or nothing to push the NEC to fulfill its responsibilities.[177] As the new deadline approached it became apparent that little had been done to prepare for the polls, that the voter registration process would not be completed on time, and that the March 2009 date had been made unfeasible as a result.

This engendered considerable public outrage, and many opposition politicians publicly refused to accept a further extension of the president’s term in office, demanding that any further delay of the election result in the imposition of a caretaker government. Privately, however, opposition leaders signaled that since it was by then technically impossible to organize the elections by March, they were willing to accept a further delay of one or two months—but nothing more. Even the government appeared to acknowledge that a delay more lengthy than that would be an outrage. At the end of February 2009 Somaliland’s foreign minister told Human Rights Watch that, “The extension of the government’s term will not be more than one and a half months, maximum. The idea that the elections could happen later than May is off the table and it should be off the table.”[178]

Two weeks later the president’s supporters in the Guurti put forward a motion to extend his term of office by six full months, until October 2009.[179] The vote in the normally pro-administration Guurti was this time hotly contested and marred by allegations of vote-buying by both sides.[180] The resolution was passed by a margin of 42 votes to 35. Again, the Guurti cited Article 83(5) of the constitution as the basis for its move but made no attempt in its resolution to argue that the extension was necessary for concrete reasons of security or that six months was the necessary period for those hypothetical security concerns to be dealt with.[181] The extension was also in open defiance of a June 2008 agreement signed by all three political parties. This extension won opposition acceptance of the Guurti’s first postponement of the polls in return for an assurance that no further delay would take place without a consensus agreement between all three parties and the NEC.[182] The NEC has now scheduled the elections for September 29, 2009.[183]

Somaliland at a Crossroads

The continuing electoral delays initially triggered widespread fears of instability. The government issued a decree banning all public demonstrations after Kulmiye officials called for protests. Scattered demonstrations organized by Kulmiye supporters took place in defiance of the ban and police made no effort to crack down on them. As always, though, all of the key actors quickly moved towards compromise rather than risk an open confrontation that could threaten Somaliland’s stability. As one opposition parliamentarian told Human Rights Watch several weeks before the latest delay was put into place, “We have avoided fighting too much about all of these issues for the security of the country. This country is hostage to peace.”[184] At the time of writing mediation had resulted in an agreement between all three major parties that accepts the new election date and explicitly rejects any further delays.[185] President Riyale has repeatedly stated that he accepts the agreement but refused to sign it. In the end, the agreement was signed by officials of all three political parties, including Riyale’s UDUB party.

If the elections are held in accordance with the new timetable and are conducted fairly, there is no compelling reason to believe that the past 12 months of electoral controversy poses a lasting threat to Somaliland’s stability. But the actions of the Riyale administration have displayed clear and dangerous disrespect for the country’s fragile democratic system. The government’s insistence that the delay is primarily a problem of organization and capacity is disingenuous. The blame for those problems falls squarely on the government’s own shoulders. The Riyale government has accepted and even encouraged the incompetence that has fueled the delays and done nothing to work towards timely elections or to push the NEC to fulfill its own responsibilities. The government had already won, and then flagrantly squandered, 10 extra months to meet its responsibility to organize the polls in 2008.

The electoral crisis puts Somaliland at a crossroads while its democratic system of government is threatened by a culmination of damaging setbacks. Somaliland’s presidential elections have been delayed by 18 months by an administration that is not committed to meeting its responsibility to organize the polls. The Guurti’s term in office was already extended by four and a half years, obviating the constitutional requirement that its mandate be renewed in one way or another. And the district elections that could lend greater democratic legitimacy to Somaliland’s otherwise-closed three party system have simply been postponed indefinitely with the self-interested blessing of all three established parties. The emerging trend in Somaliland right now is not one of free and fair elections but of a government that refuses to hold elections at all.

Somaliland’s presidential elections may well be held in September 2009 whether President Riyale would like them to or not—it is not clear that the president would succeed in obtaining a further extension of his term from the Guurti even if he were to push for one. But there is a great deal of work to be done to lay the groundwork for successful polls and this can only happen if the government commits itself now to doing so. Refraining from attempting to derail the process is not enough. It is a widely acknowledged fact that the very low capacity of Somaliland’s National Electoral Commission remains a real threat to credible elections being held on schedule with international support.[186] That is a problem whose resolution requires active and determined government efforts to push the process forward to overcome.

If the polls take place on September 29 as scheduled, and are free and fair, the damage to Somaliland’s emerging democracy will be minimized. But if the government fails yet again to organize the polls it could lead to a real and potentially destabilizing crisis, with the president unable to secure an extension of his mandate but unwilling to step down in favor of a caretaker government.

The ease with which the government has pushed aside and thwarted Somaliland’s democratic system over the course of the past year underscores the importance of the broader problem highlighted in this report. For all of Somaliland’s successes in holding its government in check through civic engagement and informal modes of pressure, its democratic system cannot be safeguarded without the creation of democratic institutions that can ensure the government upholds the rule of law.