A Note on Displacement and Other Figures Used in this Report

Because of restrictions on access placed on humanitarian agencies operating in the Vanni, there is no accurate figure available for the current number of displaced persons there. Estimates made by various government agencies and humanitarian agencies vary widely. Government Agents in the Vanni estimate 350,000 displaced persons, while the United Nations estimates 230,000-300,000. Some government officials suggest there are as few as 100,000. Because the government appears keen to downplay the severity of the humanitarian crisis in the Vanni, the number of displaced persons has become a point of contention. All other figures used in this report have been updated at the time of writing unless stated otherwise.

At a meeting for humanitarian agencies convened by the Government Agent of Vavuniya on November 4, 2008, the Government Agents for Mullaittivu and Kilinochchi stated that they had counted a total of 197,103 displaced persons in Mullaittivu (96,135 persons displaced since August 11, 2006, and 100,968 persons displaced before that date), and 151,000 displaced persons in Kilinochchi (148,109 since August 11, 2006, the remainder before that date), for a total of 348,103 displaced persons. However, the figures of the Government Agents do not take into account that a significant number of the pre-2006 displaced persons have again been displaced by the conflict and are thus counted twice, which inflates the total number.

The most recent (November 2008) figures of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimate there are 230,000 displaced in the Vanni, a figure also accepted by the United Nations Resident Coordinator's office. [64] This figure does not include the more than 100,000 registered displaced persons who were displaced prior to August 11, 2006 , and which are included in the counts of the Government Agents. However, the UN has been inconsistent in using the 230,000 figure; on a number of occasions, the UN has also estimated the number of displaced persons in the Vanni at around 300,000. [65] Most recently, the UN World Food Program used a lower figure of an "estimated" 200,000 displaced persons in the Vanni in a press statement, without any explanation why their estimates differed from those of the other UN agencies. [66] Officially, the World Food Program continues to use the figure of 238,000 displaced persons.

Estimates from national government officials typically have been lower than those of the humanitarian community and their own Government Agents in the Vanni, which appears to be aimed at downplaying the seriousness of the Vanni's humanitarian crisis. In November 2008, the Ministry of Disaster Management and Human Rights claimed that the actual number of persons displaced since April 2006 was 207,000 persons. [67] During a November 21 ceremony accepting Indian government aid for civilians in the Vanni, Sri Lankan Foreign Secretary Palitha Kohana gave an even smaller number, arguing that the figures of displaced persons in the Vanni were "grossly exaggerated," and stating that he believed there were "around 100,000" displaced persons in the Vanni. [68] It is not clear why the foreign secretary gave a figure only half that estimated by the Ministry of Disaster Management and Human Rights, but the humanitarian plight of the Vanni displaced population has greatly concerned neighboring India, with a large Tamil population in Tamil Nadu state; lowering the figures of affected persons may be an attempt to limit Indian pressure. [69]

Government officials have frequently responded to human rights concerns by arguing over the numbers used rather than about the practices described, which obfuscates the concerns raised. In any complex humanitarian situation, figures of displacement and humanitarian assistance change constantly, as displaced persons move or more humanitarian assistance is brought in. The purpose of this report is to identify patterns of government and LTTE abuses that should be cause for concern, such as restrictions on freedom of movement for displaced persons or interference with the work of humanitarian agencies. Those concerns remain the same whether 200,000, 300,000, or a different number of persons are affected.