III. Prelude to Violence: A Climate of Suspicion

In 2006 the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) held its first multiparty elections in 40 years, marking the end of a difficult three-year transition period that followed nearly a decade of war. Two successive wars, the first from 1996 to 1997 and the second from 1998 to 2003, left Congo devastated and at least five million of its citizens dead, some due to violence but many as a result of preventable disease and starvation.[2] For the millions of Congolese citizens who voted in presidential and legislative polls, the elections promised a new era of peace and hope.

During the period of transition, Joseph Kabila had served as nominal president but had been obliged to share power with leaders of the former government, armed groups, the political opposition, and civil society. He and his People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (Parti du Peuple pour la Reconstruction et la Démocratie, PPRD) saw the elections as the opportunity to finally establish their predominance over these rivals, particularly over chief contender Jean-Pierre Bemba, who had served as one of four vice-presidents during the transition, and his party, the Congolese Liberation Movement (Mouvement de Libération du Congo, MLC).

During a bitter campaign both candidates tried to mobilize ethnic and regional loyalties to win votes. Bemba, member of a well-known business and political family from the northwestern province of Equateur, portrayed himself as "One Hundred Percent Congolese,"[3] implying that Kabila was a foreigner. Bemba supporters stressed that Kabila was unable to speak Lingala (the main language of western Congo) and raised questions about his parentage, alleging that his mother was a Rwandan Tutsi. Following the five years of Congo's second war, in which Rwanda (as well as other countries), had occupied large swathes of Congolese territory, anti-Tutsi sentiment was strong and provided a powerful rallying cry to organize anti-Kabila opposition. The Kabila campaign portrayed Bemba, a former armed group leader, as a war criminal whose forces had committed cannibalism and other horrific acts.

Kabila and his supporters had expected an outright victory in the first round of voting (held July 30, with vote counting running into the third week of August) but a last-minute surge in support for Bemba deprived Kabila of the 50 percent plus one needed to win.[4]  The voting showed a split in the country between Lingala speakers in the west who had largely voted for Bemba, and Swahili speakers in the east who had largely voted for Kabila.[5] This divide shocked Kabila and his advisors who feared Bemba might attempt to capitalize on the division. It also raised concerns about how Kabila would govern if the capital Kinshasa and large parts of western Congo were hostile to him and his government.[6]

Following this inconclusive first round, leaders on each side suspected that the other might attempt a preemptive coup or take other military action. The continued existence of troops from both sides who remained outside of the national army heightened these fears. According to the terms of the agreement that had established the transitional government, formerly hostile military forces were supposed to be integrated into a new national army, a process that was to be finished before the elections but which had not been completed.[7] Despite pressure from donor governments to put the Republican Guard under regular army command, Kabila had kept its 10,000 to 15,000 troops under his own direct control.[8] Diplomats and UN officials widely viewed the Republican Guards "as Kabila's private militia."[9] As vice-president, Bemba was permitted a personal protection guard,[10] which he increased in the lead-up to the elections to some 800 to 900 armed men, at least 400 of whom were based in Kinshasa.[11]

According to a respected Congolese analyst interviewed by Human Rights Watch, the presence of these guards and the fear of large sections of Lingala speaking people opposing Kabila panicked his inner circle. They further worried that delivering on election promises in the short term would be exceedingly difficult and might quickly lead to dissatisfaction among the population which could be exploited by the opposition, especially by Bemba.[12] To counter these threats, Kabila and his advisors pursued violence and intimidation against their rivals. The prevailing environment established by nearly a decade of war when there had been few functioning democratic institutions remained largely unchanged: military solutions to political problems were able to dominate the policy agenda with devastating consequences for human rights. Following the bloody events in the capital Kinshasa (as described below), an article in one of Kinshasa prominent newspapers, Le Potentiel, questioned whether Kabila's new government was "returning [the country] to the worst period of Mobutu's terror."[13]