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VIII. CONCLUSION

Past politically motivated ethnic violence in Kenya, which has flared especially at election time, raises serious concerns that politicians may orchestrate violence to influence the next general elections, slated for 2002. This concern is rooted in several factors. Electoral politics in Kenya are split along ethnic lines, pitting ethnic groups against each other in a competition for power and resources. Kenya's history of politically motivated violence targeting particular groups clearly suggest tactics political opportunists can emulate to achieve similar results, which they are all the more likely to pursue since the masterminds of past attacks have enjoyed impunity for their actions. Violence has been used so often for political ends and without accountability that it is at risk of being seen as a legitimate means of political discourse. The reliance on violence and the targeting of victims along ethnic lines, when combined with the increased availability of small arms, makes for an ever more dangerous mix. Those who have been the targets of past attacks have resented the suffering of their community and have reacted to fears about the future by increasingly seeking self-protection through the acquisition of more sophisticated weapons. This growing militarization and fear of other groups raises the possibility that ethnic violence in Kenya might be triggered easily and spread rapidly, with devastating results.

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