VISION 2010

Although not directly related to the transition program, the work of Vision 2010, a 250-member committee of private sector representatives, government ministers, academics, journalists, traditional rulers, trade union leaders and foreign businessmen, among others, inaugurated by General Abacha on November 27, 1996, is similarly intended to move the country forward. The committee is chaired by Chief Ernest Shonekan, who headed a short-lived interim national government in 1993 before Abacha seized power.137

Vision 2010's terms of reference are extremely amorphous, including "To define our country, its correct bearing and sense of economic, political, social and cultural direction;" "To set appropriate goals and targets and time frames for achieving our economic, political, social and cultural objectives and to propose the strategies and the institutional arrangements required to attain the set goals and targets;" "To forge a plan which will ensure that Nigeria is en route by year 2010, to becoming a developed nation in terms of economic prosperity, political stability and social harmony;" and "Propose a comprehensive plan for the country that will enable it to optimize its economicprospects and prepare it as a major economic power in the African region and the emerging market."138 In order to achieve these objectives, the committee initially identified thirteen "critical success factors" that fall into four categories: human capital (health, education, population); shared values (norms and standards, anti-corruption, openness, cooperation and managing diversity); governing systems (law and order, good and stable governance); global competitiveness (external environment; science, engineering and technology, competition, sustainable economic growth). Thirteen groups were formed to address each of the critical success factors, with final reports to be submitted by April 1997. Seventeen subcommittees were subsequently formed to address a variety of economic issues relating to macroeconomic structure, development, the "real sector" (encompassing agriculture, industry, trade, solid minerals, downstream and upstream petroleum) and funding/capital mobilization. Finally, thirteen subcommittees were organized to address "third wave issues," including public and private sector roles, mass communication, organizing and building support, legal reforms, privatization, pensions savings and social security, women, labor management and industrial relations, information systems and youth development. Meanwhile, Vision 2010 members and "stakeholder groups" encompassing different sectors of the population participated in workshops convened to discuss broader issues, compare Nigeria's progress to that of other countries, set goals, formulate action plans and develop the final "vision."139 Vision 2010 also sponsored a joint workshop for politicians from the five registered political parties, none of whom is a member of the committee.140

At a Vision 2010 workshop in Washington D.C. in late June 1997, a member of Vision 2010's Technical Committee announced that the future roles of different stakeholders in the process of achieving the vision were becoming progressively clearer. He emphasized that the government's role included strengthening democratic institutions to facilitate popular participation in government. In particular, he cited the need for regular national elections that are free and fair and are seen to be so, a free press and an independent judiciary. He also emphasized the importance of the private sector, including both the business community and non-governmental organizations, in creating an enabling environment for "entrepreneurship."141

In an interview with Human Rights Watch, one Vision 2010 member clarified that the four central prongs of Vision 2010's mandate were democratization, liberalization, globalization and technology. He highlighted the fallacy of Abacha's assertions that economic reforms must precede political reforms and noted that he, like many other Vision 2010 members, had emphasized that political reform must be paramount. He stressed that Vision 2010's final recommendations would include restoration of the rule of law and good governance, as well as the release of all political detainees. He also confided that, while the Abacha regime has not sought to influence the content of Vision 2010's recommendations, the members of the committee are not convinced that their recommendations will ever be implemented.142

Vision 2010 submitted its final report to General Abacha on September 30, 1997. The committee reportedly recommended "large-scale deregulation of the Nigerian economy," the release of political detainees and rigorouscompliance with the transition program.143 In his October 1, 1997 National Day address, Abacha promised to "introduce the measures immediately required to begin the program's implementation in the firm belief that succeeding administrations will carry it to a successful conclusion with the support of all our people and friends of the nation."144 General Abacha pronounced, "We are convinced that in order to ensure a stable and lasting civil rule for our people, a solid economic base is a major prerequisite." He then proceeded to congratulate himself on the success of economic reform initiatives already undertaken during his tenure, including "measures to curb inflation, strengthen the value of the naira, encourage savings and productivity, stimulate investment, and create employment."145

The fears of Vision 2010 members that their recommendations will not be implemented appear justified. The committee has been meeting against the background of economic stagnation brought on by wilful government neglect and mismanagement. Funds for capital projects budgeted for the first half of 1997 were only released in September, bringing investment in infrastructure and the economy in general to a virtual halt. The government's elimination of fertilizer subsidies in early 1997 is likely to produce a shortage of staple grains by 1998.146 Massive layoffs of federal and state employees throughout the country have caused significant hardship. Pervasive corruption has not been checked by the government's establishment of "failed bank" and "failed contract" tribunals, which seem designed rather to target potential opposition supporters than to crack down on illegal deals. Recurrent fuel shortages, in one of the world's largest oil producing countries, bring commercial activities to a standstill. The government has proffered diverse explanations for these fuel crises, including smuggling of petroleum products across neighboring international borders, hoarding by citizens, diversion and sabotage of oil production facilities.147 Notably absent from these justifications is any willingness on the part of the government to assume responsibility for its failure to maintain Nigeria's refineries or general its mismanagement of the country's abundant oil resources.